Geospatial analysis of climate variability and its influence on agricultural land-use transformation

The feasibility of multiple cropping, irrigation demand, sowing decisions, and fallowing can all be influenced by climate variability, which can result in a significant transformation of agricultural land use. This study assesses those relationships for India by utilising a national annual panel from 2010–11 to 2019–20 and endpoint observations for 14 agriculturally significant states. The India Meteorological Department's monsoon and annual rainfall departures were compared to the official land-use statistics. The analysis was conducted using a three-nearest-neighbor state-centroid matrix and included descriptive change accounting, Mann–Kendall tests, Sen slope estimates, Pearson and Spearman correlations, heteroskedasticity-consistent time-adjusted regressions, and global Moran's I. The mean deviation from the monsoon rainfall was -3.25% (standard deviation 7.96 percentage points). The total cropped area increased by 13.231 million ha, and the cultivation intensity increased from 140.15% to 151.08%. At the same time, the net area sown decreased by 1.468 million ha and agricultural land by 1.923 million ha. The total cropped area and cropping intensity increased substantially, while the net area seeded exhibited a significant negative monotonic trend. A one-percentage-point wetter monsoon was associated with 68.7 thousand ha less current fallow and 83.2 thousand ha more net planted area after adjustment for time. The current fallow land was strongly inversely correlated with monsoon departure (r = −0.914, p <.001). The state changes were heterogeneous and did not exhibit any significant global spatial clustering at the 5% level. The evidence suggests that rainfall disruptions have an impact on the annual land-use margins, and intensification has partially compensated for the contraction of the cultivated land base. The policy should incorporate irrigation efficiency, soil-moisture conservation, and state-specific land protection, in addition to rainfall-responsive fallow monitoring.